Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) in Pakistan: The Daunting Threat of an Outbreak as Eid-ul-Azha Approaches.

The Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) virus is a tick-borne virus that can spread from infected people and other animals, including cattle and ticks of the Hyalomma genus. People who are infected describe symptoms that range from flu-like manifestations to severe multi-organ failure. With a death rate between 10% and 30%, the virus is undoubtedly a disease of high concern. With 10,000-15,000 cases/y, it is endemic in parts of Asia, Africa, and South-Eastern Europe. There has been a recent CCHF outbreak in Iraq, with 212 cases documented, 80% of which were reported between April and May and led to 27 fatalities.

Safety and efficacy of Sinopharm vaccine (BBIBP-CorV) in elderly population of Faisalabad district of Pakistan.

INTRODUCTION: The first case of novel SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19) in Pakistan was detected on 26 February 2020. Pharmacological and non-pharmacological strategies have been tried to lessen the mortality and morbidity burden. Various vaccines have been approved. The Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan gave emergency approval for Sinopharm (BBIBP-CorV) COVID-19 vaccine in December 2021. The phase 3 trial of BBIBP-CorV included only 612 participants aged 60 years and above. The primary aim of this study was to assess the safety and efficacy of BBIBPP-CorV (Sinopharm) vaccine within the Pakistani adult population aged 60 or above. The study was carried out in the Faisalabad district of Pakistan. METHODS: A test negative case-control study design was used to assess safety and efficacy of BBIBP-CorV in individuals aged 60 and above against symptomatic infection, hospitalisations and mortality due to SARS-CoV-2 among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. ORs were calculated using logistic regression model at 95% CI. ORs were used to calculate the vaccine efficacy (VE) by using the following formula.VE= (1-OR) ×100. RESULTS: 3426 individuals with symptoms of COVID-19 were PCR tested between 5 May 2021 and 31 July 2021. The results showed that Sinopharm vaccine 14 days after the second dose was efficient in reducing the risk of symptomatic COVID-19 infection, hospitalisations and mortality by 94.3%, 60.5% and 98.6%, respectively, among vaccinated individuals with a significant p value of 0.001. CONCLUSION: Our study showed that BBIBP-CorV vaccine is highly effective in preventing infection, hospitalisations and mortality due to COVID-19.

Short-term adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccines after the first, second, and booster doses: a cross-sectional survey from Punjab, Pakistan, and the implications.

BACKGROUND: Safety and efficacy concerns regarding coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines are common among the public and have a negative impact on their uptake. We aimed to report the adverse effects currently associated with the vaccine in Pakistan to build confidence among the population for its adoption. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in five districts of the Punjab province of Pakistan between January and March 2022. The participants were recruited using convenience sampling. All data were analyzed using SPSS 22. RESULTS: We recruited 1622 people with the majority aged between 25-45 years. Of these, 51% were female, including 27 pregnant women and 42 lactating mothers. Most participants had received the Sinopharm (62.6%) or Sinovac (17.8%) vaccines. The incidences of at least one side effect after the first (N = 1622), second (N = 1484), and booster doses (N = 219) of the COVID-19 vaccine were 16.5%, 20.1%, and 32%, respectively. Inflammation/erythema at the injection site, pain at the injection site, fever, and bone/muscle pain were common side effects of vaccination. No significant differences were observed in the adverse effect scores between all demographic variables except for pregnancy (P = 0.012) after the initial dose. No significant association was observed between any variable and the side effect scores of the second and booster doses of the vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed a 16-32% prevalence of self-reported side effects after the first, second, and booster COVID-19 vaccinations. Most adverse effects were mild and transient, indicating the safety of different COVID-19 vaccines.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and attitudes in Pakistan: a cross-sectional phone survey of major urban cities.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 mass vaccination is the only hopeful savior to curb the pandemic. Vaccine distribution to achieve herd immunity is hindered by hesitance and negative attitude of the public against COVID-19 vaccination. This study aims to evaluate the vaccine hesitancy and attitudes in major cities in Pakistan as well as their determinants. METHODS: A cross-sectional telephonic survey was conducted in June 2021 in major cities of Pakistan including Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Peshawar, and Gilgit, from unvaccinated urban population aged 18 years or older. Random Digit Dialing through multi-stage stratified random sampling was used to ensure representation of each target city and socio-economic classes. Questionnaire collected information on socio-demographics, COVID-19-related experiences, risk perception of infection, and receptivity of COVID-19 vaccination. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify key determinants of vaccine hesitancy and acceptance. RESULTS: The prevalence of vaccinated population in this survey was 15%. Of the 2270 respondents, 65% respondents were willing to vaccinate, while only 19% were registered for vaccination. Factors significantly associated with vaccine willingness were older age (aOR: 6.48, 95% CI: 1.94-21.58), tertiary education (aOR: 2.02, 95% CI: 1.36, 3.01), being employed (aOR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.78), perceived risk of COVID-19 (aOR: 4.38, 95% CI: 2.70, 7.12), and higher compliance with standard operating procedures (aOR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.26, 2.35). The most common vaccine hesitancy reasons were 'no need' (n = 284, 36%) and concerns with 'vaccine safety and side effects' (n = 251, 31%), while most reported vaccine motivation reasons were 'health safety' (n = 1029, 70%) and 'to end the pandemic' (n = 357, 24%). CONCLUSIONS: Although our study found 35% hesitancy rate of COVID-19 vaccine, there were noticeable demographic differences that suggest tailored communication strategy to address concerns held by most hesitant subpopulation. Use of mobile vaccination facilities particularly for less mobile and disadvantaged, and implementation and evaluation of social mobilization strategy should be considered to increase overall COVID-19 vaccination acceptance and coverage.

Presence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy in hospitalized Covid-19 patients in a tertiary care hospital in Pakistan-A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy in hospitalized Covid-19 patients in a tertiary care hospital in the metropolitan city of Lahore, Pakistan from September 2020 till July 2021. METHODS: We retrospectively collected data of Covid-19 patients hospitalized from September 2020 till July 2021. Only those patients who tested PCR positive through a nasopharyngeal swab, were enrolled in the study. Patients' whose data were missing were excluded from this study. Our exclusion criteria included patients who tested negative on Covid-19 PCR, patients with comorbidities that may cause enlarged mediastinal lymphadenopathies such as haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis, neoplasia, tuberculosis, sarcoidosis or a systemic disease. The extent of lung involvement in Covid-19 patients was quantified by using a 25-point visual quantitative assessment called the Chest Computed Tomography Score. This score was then correlated with the presence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy. FINDINGS: Of the 210 hospitalized patients included in the study, 131 (62.4%) had mediastinal lymphadenopathy. The mean and median Severity Score of Covid-19 patients with mediastinal lymphadenopathy (mean: 17.1, SD:5.7; median: 17, IQR: 13-23) were higher as compared to those without mediastinal lymphadenopathy (mean: 12.3, SD:5.4; median: 12, IQR:9-16). INTERPRETATION: Our study documents a high prevalence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy in hospitalized patients with Covid-19 with the severity score being higher in its presence representing a more severe course of disease.

Temporal study of wastewater surveillance from September 2020 to March 2021: an estimation of COVID-19 patients in Lahore, Pakistan.

The first aim of study was to quantify the viral load in the wastewater samples by RT-qPCR testing in Lahore population to estimate the number of patients affected and predict the next resurgence of COVID-19 wave in the city. The second aim of the study was to determine the hotspot areas of Lahore which remained positive more often for virus with high viral load. In this study, n = 420 sewage samples were collected on an average of two weeks intervals from 30 different sewage water disposal stations (14 sampling events) from Sept 2020 to March 2021. RNA was extracted and quantified by RT-qPCR without concentrating the virus in samples. Number of positive disposal sites (7-93%), viral load from sewage samples (100.296 to 103.034), and estimated patients (660-17,030) ranged from low to high according to the surge and restrain of 2nd and 3rd COVID-19 waves in the country. The viral load and estimated patients were reported high in January 2021 and March 2021 which were similar to the peak of 2nd and 3rd waves in Pakistan. Site 18 (Niaz Baig village DS) showed the highest viral load among all sites. Findings of the present study helped to estimate the number of patients and track the resurgence in COVID-19 waves in Lahore particularly, and in Punjab generally. Furthermore, it emphasizes the role of wastewater-based epidemiology to help policymakers strengthen the quarantine measures along with immunization to overcome enteric viral diseases. Local and national stake holders should work in collaboration to improve the environmental hygiene to control the disease.

Prediction of the COVID-19 transmission: a case study of Pakistan.

The world has suffered a lot from COVID-19 and is still on the verge of a new outbreak. The infected regions of coronavirus have been classified into four categories: SIRD model, (1) suspected, (2) infected, (3) recovered, and (4) deaths, where the COVID-19 transmission is evaluated using a stochastic model. A study in Pakistan modeled COVID-19 data using stochastic models like PRM and NBR. The findings were evaluated based on these models, as the country faces its third wave of the virus. Our study predicts COVID-19 casualties in Pakistan using a count data model. We've used a Poisson process, SIRD-type framework, and a stochastic model to find the solution. We took data from NCOC (National Command and Operation Center) website to choose the best prediction model based on all provinces of Pakistan, On the values of log L and AIC criteria. The best model among PRM and NBR is NBR because when over-dispersion happens; NBR is the best model for modelling the total suspected, infected, and recovered COVID-19 occurrences in Pakistan as it has the maximum log L and smallest AIC of the other count regression model. It was also observed that the active and critical cases positively and significantly affect COVID-19-related deaths in Pakistan using the NBR model.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and social contact patterns in Pakistan: results from a national cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination is a key tool against COVID-19. However, in many settings it is not clear how acceptable COVID-19 vaccination is among the general population, or how hesitancy correlates with risk of disease acquisition. In this study we conducted a nationally representative survey in Pakistan to measure vaccination perceptions and social contacts in the context of COVID-19 control measures and vaccination programmes. METHODS: We conducted a vaccine perception and social contact survey with 3,658 respondents across five provinces in Pakistan, between 31 May and 29 June 2021. Respondents were asked a series of vaccine perceptions questions, to report all direct physical and non-physical contacts made the previous day, and a number of other questions regarding the social and economic impact of COVID-19 and control measures. We examined variation in perceptions and contact patterns by geographic and demographic factors. We describe knowledge, experiences and perceived risks of COVID-19. We explored variation in contact patterns by individual characteristics and vaccine hesitancy, and compared to patterns from non-pandemic periods. RESULTS: Self-reported adherence to self-isolation guidelines was poor, and 51% of respondents did not know where to access a COVID-19 test. Although 48.1% of participants agreed that they would get a vaccine if offered, vaccine hesitancy was higher than in previous surveys, and greatest in Sindh and Baluchistan provinces and among respondents of lower socioeconomic status. Participants reported a median of 5 contacts the previous day (IQR: 3-5, mean 14.0, 95%CI: 13.2, 14.9). There were no substantial differences in the number of contacts reported by individual characteristics, but contacts varied substantially among respondents reporting more or less vaccine hesitancy. Contacts were highly assortative, particularly outside the household where 97% of men's contacts were with other men. We estimate that social contacts were 9% lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Although the perceived risk of COVID-19 in Pakistan is low in the general population, around half of participants in this survey indicated they would get vaccinated if offered. Vaccine impact studies which do not account for correlation between social contacts and vaccine hesitancy may incorrectly estimate the impact of vaccines, for example, if unvaccinated people have more contacts.

Participatory action research to co-design a culturally appropriate COVID-19 risk communication and community engagement strategy in rural Pakistan.

Background: Community engagement has shown to be fundamental component of the response to previous disease outbreaks. This study aimed co-design and implement a culturally appropriate COVID-19 risk communication and community engagement strategy with a resource-poor rural community in Northwest Pakistan. Methods: Participatory Action Research (PAR) was conducted from January 2021 to March 2022. Five PAR meetings took place with community members (n = 30) to: (1) explore how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted on the community; (2) identify challenges to limit the spread of the virus; (3) identify and implement solutions to these challenges; and (4) highlight the enablers, challenges and knowledge of the cultural context needed to optimize safety during emergencies. Focus group discussions (N = 6) with community members not involved in the PAR meetings (N = 50) and children of the community (N = 26) were conducted following the PAR meetings. Thematic analysis of the PAR and focus group data was conducted. Results: Delivery of messages on how to keep families safe, provision of personal protective equipment and improved water systems were part of the strategies taken by the community to create awareness and reduce the spread of COVID-19. Nine themes were identified: Attitudes to the pandemic: From skepticism to acceptance, Changing attitudes about vaccination: rumors and trust, COVID-19 and Faith, Social impact of the pandemic, Access to water, Resource mobilization: personal protective equipment, Spaces where collaborative effort can bring to solutions, Agents of change, and Empowerment of women. Discussion: The participatory approach of this research allowed understanding of the challenges faced by the community to engage in behavior change strategies to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and enabled the community to find sustainable solutions. Engagement with the community empowered men and women to be agents of change and promoted necessary precautionary actions to reduce the risk of infection within their community. Conclusion: Participatory approach highlighted the importance of engaging with and integrating to local culture and values to overcome challenges such as gender imbalance and distrust. Findings of this study are relevant to others working in diverse cultural settings in similar crises events regardless of particular cultural variations.

Coronavirus pandemic in the South Asia region: Health policy and economy trade-off.

Background: The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) covers Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. We conducted a comparative analysis of the trade-off between the health policies for the prevention of COVID-19 spread and the impact of these policies on the economies and livelihoods of the South Asia populations. Methods: We analyzed COVID-19 data on epidemiology, public health and health policy, health system capacity, and macroeconomic indicators from January 2020 to March 2021 to determine temporal trends by conducting joinpoint regression analysis using average weekly percent change (AWPC). Results: Bangladesh had the highest statistically significant AWPC for new COVID-19 cases (17.0; 95% CI = 7.7-27.1, P < 0.001), followed by the Maldives (12.9; 95% CI = 5.3-21.0, P < 0.001) and India (10.0; 95% CI = 8.4-11.5, P < 0.001). The AWPC for COVID-19 deaths was significant for India (6.5; 95% CI = 4.3-8.9, P < 0.001) and Bangladesh (6.1; 95% CI = 3.7-8.5, P < 0.001). Nepal (55.79%), and India (34.91%) had the second- and third-highest increase in unemployment, while Afghanistan (6.83%) and Pakistan (16.83%) had the lowest. The rate of change of real GDP had the highest decrease for Maldives (557.51%), and India (297.03%); Pakistan (46.46%) and Bangladesh (70.80%), however, had the lowest decrease. The government response stringency index for Pakistan had a see-saw pattern with a sharp decline followed by an increase in the government health policy restrictions that approximated the test-positivity trend. Conclusions: Unlike developed economies, the South Asian developing countries experienced a trade-off between health policy and their economies during the COVID-19 pandemic. South Asian countries (Nepal and India), with extended periods of lockdowns and a mismatch between temporal trends of government response stringency index and the test-positivity or disease incidence, had higher adverse economic effects, unemployment, and burden of COVID-19. Pakistan demonstrated targeted lockdowns with a rapid see-saw pattern of government health policy response that approximated the test-positivity trend and resulted in lesser adverse economic effects, unemployment, and burden of COVID-19.

Evaluation of Willingness to Accept COVID-19 Vaccine and Willingness to Pay among Pakistani Parents for Their Children Aged 5 to 11 Years: Findings and Implications.

Vaccines are the most efficient and cost-effective tool to halt the transmission and prevention of COVID-19. The current study examined the willingness of parents to vaccinate their children against COVID-19. This was a cross-sectional study that used a questionnaire based on the Health Belief Model, previous history of COVID-19, willingness to accept, and willingness to pay for the COVID-19 vaccine. The questionnaire was administered among parents of children aged 5 to 11 years. Descriptive statistics, χ2 tests, and regression analysis were carried out for data analysis. A total of 474 respondents participated in this survey with a response rate of 67.7%. In our study, a majority of the respondents exhibited a willingness to accept the COVID-19 vaccine for their children (Definitely yes/Probably yes = 252, 53.2%); nevertheless, 229 (48.3%) respondents were unwilling to pay for it. More than three-quarters of the respondents were worried about the probability of COVID-19 infection in their children (n = 361, 76.2%) and were afraid of COVID-19-associated complications (n = 391, 82.5%). Likewise, most respondents showed their concerns regarding the effectiveness of the vaccine (n = 351, 74.1%), vaccine safety (n = 351, 74.1%), and the halal nature of the vaccine (n = 309, 65.2%). Respondents who were aged 40 to 50 years (odds ratio [OR]: 0.101, 95% CI: 0.38-0.268; P < 0.001), family income > 50,000 PKR (OR: 0.680, 95% CI: 0.321-1.442; P = 0.012), and location (OR: 0.324, 95% CI: 0.167-0.628; P = 0.001) were the factors that were likely to impact vaccine acceptance among parents. Education-based interventions are urgently required to improve COVID-19 vaccination acceptance among parents for their children.

Knowledge, attitude, and practices of front line health workers after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine: a cross-sectional study in Pakistan.

Background: Globally, there is an increased risk of COVID-19 infection among front-line health workers (FHW). This study aimed to evaluate the knowledge, attitude, and practices of FHW of Pakistan after receiving the COVID-19 vaccine. Methods: A population web-based survey on COVID-19 vaccine was conducted on 635 FHW in Pakistan between April 15, 2021, and July 15, 2021. The survey focused on four main sections consisting of socio-demographic data, knowledge, attitude, and practices after receiving the COVID-19 vaccine. The data was analyzed on SPSS. p < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: Overall, 60% of FHW were nervous before getting vaccinated, with the leading reason to get vaccinated being their concern to protect themselves and their community (53.4%). A majority of FHW had fear about the unseen side effects of the COVID-19 vaccine (59.7%) used in Pakistan, with the most common side effect reported as soreness at the injection site (39%). It has been noted that almost all of the FHW observed preventive practices after getting vaccinated. The results showed that married respondents had favorable practices towards COVID-19 vaccines (B = 0.53, p < 0.01) (B, unstandardized regression coefficient). It was also found that more informational sources (B = 0.19, p < 0.01), higher knowledge of vaccination (B = 0.15, p < 0.001), and favorable attitude toward vaccine (B = 0.12, p < 0.001) significantly predicted favorable practices toward COVID-19 vaccination. Conclusion: The findings reflect that FHW, though they were worried about its side effects, have good knowledge and a positive attitude after getting the COVID-19 vaccine. This study is significant as the FHWs are a symbol for guidance, a reliable source of information, and an encouraging means of receiving COVID-19 vaccine for the general public. This study also reported that post-vaccination side effects were mild which will aid in reducing the vaccine hesitancy among the general Pakistani population.

Informal employment and catastrophic health expenditures: Evidence from Pakistan.

Workers in informal employment suffered significant out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures (OOPHEs) due to their low earnings and a lack of a social safety net or health insurance. There is little or no evidence of impoverishment caused by OOPHEs in the context of labor market categorization. Therefore, this study examines the economic burden of OOPHEs and its associated consequences on households, whose members are in informal employment. This study estimates the incidence of catastrophic health expenditures (CHEs) and impoverishment across the households in formal and informal employment and their key determinants in Pakistan by employing the data from the two rounds of the Household Integrated Economic Survey (2015-16, 2018-19). For measuring CHEs and impoverishment, the budget share and capacity-to-pay approaches are applied. Various thresholds are used to demonstrate the sensitivity of catastrophic measures. We found a higher incidence of catastrophic healthcare payments among the informal workers, that is, 4.03% and 7.11% for 2015-16 and 2018-19, respectively, at a 10% threshold, while at a 40% threshold, the incidence of CHEs is found to be 0.40% and 2.34% for 2015-16 and 2018-19, respectively. These OOPHEs caused 1.53% and 3.66% of households who are in informal employment to become impoverished, compared with their formal counterparts. The study demonstrates that the probability of incurring CHEs and becoming impoverished is high among informal workers, compared with their formal counterparts. This result has clear policy implications, in which to protect the informal workers, it is necessary to expand the insurance coverage, particularly during the COVID-19 response and recovery efforts.

Stigmatization, panic disorder, and death anxiety among patients of Covid-19: Fourth wave of pandemic in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: In Pakistan, the fourth wave of COVID-19 is causing an increasing number of positive cases. This fourth wave may be a risky aspect of mental health issues for COVID-19 patients. This quantitative study is designed to understand the stigmatization, and panic disorder and to explore the mediating role of death anxiety among patients of COVID-19 during the fourth wave of novel coronavirus. METHODS: The study was conducted using a correlational research design. The survey was carried out by utilizing a questionnaire with a convenient sample technique. The sample of the study was comprised of 139 patients with COVID-19. Data were collected through Stigma Scale for Chronic Illnesses (SSCI), The Panic Disorder Severity Scale (PDSS), and Death Anxiety Inventory. RESULTS: Results show that stigma is significantly positively related to panic disorder and death anxiety. Furthermore, panic disorder is also significantly positively related to death anxiety. Results also indicate that stigmatization is a significant positive predictor for death anxiety and panic disorder. Moreover, results indicate that death anxiety has a mediating role in the relationship between stigmatization and panic disorder with age and gender as covariates. CONCLUSION: This study would be helpful for people around the world to understand this threatening contagious virus so they wouldn't stigmatize infected ones. Additional research is required for the sustainable improvement of anxiety over time.